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Author Topic: Is flying just going to be too much of a hassle?  (Read 13145 times)

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alexis

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Re: Is flying just going to be too much of a hassle?
« Reply #20 on: January 08, 2010, 04:18:55 AM »

Cheers Alexis. Always enjoy our chats.

We would have to talk to the Taleban. Get the Shia's talking to the Sunni's. Israel must talk to Hammas.
We solved Northern Ireland by power sharing - guys that would have killed each other ten years ago sit together in power now. (though bare in mind that many terrorists/freedom fighters walked free. Think of our reaction to the Lockerbie release.)

I think we managed to convince them that they had more to gain by peace than war. God bless Game Theory. And they were people divided by culture, ethnicity, allegance, religion, in some cases language,with a history of violence and animosity going back centuries. I can't see any obvious reason why it can't work in those other places.

Game Theory - perfect when both sides are rationale. When that's not the case though ... gee, I wonder if scientists have developed a behavioral model for that? Can it even be done? I know,  maybe it can, by combining Game Theory prinicples with Chaos Theory? "The Fractal Analysis of the Al Qaeda Problem ("Eyes Only!)  :D
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Kevin

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Re: Is flying just going to be too much of a hassle?
« Reply #21 on: January 08, 2010, 09:41:18 AM »

Game Theory - perfect when both sides are rationale. When that's not the case though ... gee, I wonder if scientists have developed a behavioral model for that? Can it even be done? I know,  maybe it can, by combining Game Theory prinicples with Chaos Theory? "The Fractal Analysis of the Al Qaeda Problem ("Eyes Only!)  :D
I think we are all too easily convinced that our enemies are innocent populations led by irrational nutters. But that's only from our point of view.
Most of these countries, North Korea, Iran, Iraq (before), Serbia (before), Lybia, Cuba etc have all been portrayed as such.
Yet all these nations, like The Taleban now who (as they did against the Soviets) face an enemy with an economic and military power vastly superior to their own. And most have played very clever games of brinkmanship with the US, who has only been able to remove them by actually invading. They play the game most advantageous to them. (of course, sometimes they make mistakes (as do we). Game Theory doesn't mean everyone always wins.)
I don't believe any of these nations or organisations are run by (or all the important decisions are made by) irrational people, and it is dangerous to dismiss them as so. They are heads of regimes, part of huge military complexes.
Nth Korea is portrayed as a nutter state. Yet it is a poor country faced by the US, South Korea and Japan. It maintains a huge miliary machine, has developed nuclear weapons (we have them , does that make us nutters?) , with many people in the regime with huge vested interests in it's survival and frequently forces the issue with daring bits of diplomatic brinkmanship while avoiding actual conflict (which it knows it would ultimately loose.)
I think to always dismiss your enemy as irrational because he acts in a manner or of a motive alien to you is wrong, and dangerous. If game Theory is true (and it seems to be) you are automatically at a disadvantage. He is more likely to calculate your next move (because he believes you will act rationally) than you will his (because you believe him to be acting irrationally, therefore unpredictably.)
An oppenent will always tend to do the thing they see as the most advantageous to themselves. The trick is to figure out what that is.
« Last Edit: January 08, 2010, 11:57:23 AM by Kevin »
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alexis

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Re: Is flying just going to be too much of a hassle?
« Reply #22 on: January 09, 2010, 04:39:06 AM »

I think we are all too easily convinced that our enemies are innocent populations led by irrational nutters. But that's only from our point of view.
Most of these countries, North Korea, Iran, Iraq (before), Serbia (before), Lybia, Cuba etc have all been portrayed as such.
Yet all these nations, like The Taleban now who (as they did against the Soviets) face an enemy with an economic and military power vastly superior to their own. And most have played very clever games of brinkmanship with the US, who has only been able to remove them by actually invading. They play the game most advantageous to them. (of course, sometimes they make mistakes (as do we). Game Theory doesn't mean everyone always wins.)
I don't believe any of these nations or organisations are run by (or all the important decisions are made by) irrational people, and it is dangerous to dismiss them as so. They are heads of regimes, part of huge military complexes.
Nth Korea is portrayed as a nutter state. Yet it is a poor country faced by the US, South Korea and Japan. It maintains a huge miliary machine, has developed nuclear weapons (we have them , does that make us nutters?) , with many people in the regime with huge vested interests in it's survival and frequently forces the issue with daring bits of diplomatic brinkmanship while avoiding actual conflict (which it knows it would ultimately loose.)
I think to always dismiss your enemy as irrational because he acts in a manner or of a motive alien to you is wrong, and dangerous. If game Theory is true (and it seems to be) you are automatically at a disadvantage. He is more likely to calculate your next move (because he believes you will act rationally) than you will his (because you believe him to be acting irrationally, therefore unpredictably.)
An oppenent will always tend to do the thing they see as the most advantageous to themselves. The trick is to figure out what that is.

Very interesting and thought provoking as always, Kevin!  :D

Considering this idea of yours for the moment: "...An oppenent will always tend to do the thing they see as the most advantageous to themselves. The trick is to figure out what that is.". The implication here and in the rest of your post seems to be that negotiation is always possible, even desirable.

Though I like the sound of that, and tend to agree offhand ...  thinking about it some more makes me question whether that is always true. What if the "other" organization is very rational, but truly their only goal is - oh, let's say just for the sake of discussion - to rid the planet every one who doesn't agree with them?

Now it may be that Al Qaeda and/or the "militant Islamists" who claim this as their raison d'etre are actually just using this as a foil for other more "negotiable" goals. But for the sake of discussion here, imagine if that were true - that there was a large, well-organized, well-financed group whose entire reason for forming themselves and existing was to kill all people of a certain characteristic - Christian, Jew, Black, etc. ... and they were very successful at maintaining a steady supply of "soldiers" ready to commit suicide to get this done.

Rational? ... possibly. But does Game Theory have value here in finding a mutually acceptable outcome? Is there anything "negotiable"? I'm not so sure there.


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Alexis

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Re: Is flying just going to be too much of a hassle?
« Reply #23 on: January 21, 2010, 07:07:15 PM »

I know this thread has evolved into a political discussion, but I just wanted to add that recently I've flown in/out of Philly and Orlando airports and the security was not any different than it has been for the past couple of years.
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Jane

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Re: Is flying just going to be too much of a hassle?
« Reply #24 on: January 21, 2010, 09:22:28 PM »

I know this thread has evolved into a political discussion, but I just wanted to add that recently I've flown in/out of Philly and Orlando airports and the security was not any different than it has been for the past couple of years.

I also think so. The only difference is that the British are more strict about the luggage.You can`t have two bags as handluggage with you, even if one bag is your not so large lady`s bag. You have to push it into your other bag. And this other bag is not to be large, it is to fit the size demonstrated at the airport. However sometimes they forget to check it all, but to be on the safe side it is recommended to follow the instructions.
Some British customs officials are also too demanding, they can even ask you some questions, like what do you know about Shakespeare? This is beyond me...
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alexis

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Re: Is flying just going to be too much of a hassle?
« Reply #25 on: January 21, 2010, 11:47:03 PM »

I also think so. The only difference is that the British are more strict about the luggage.You can`t have two bags as handluggage with you, even if one bag is your not so large lady`s bag. You have to push it into your other bag. And this other bag is not to be large, it is to fit the size demonstrated at the airport. However sometimes they forget to check it all, but to be on the safe side it is recommended to follow the instructions.
Some British customs officials are also too demanding, they can even ask you some questions, like what do you know about Shakespeare? This is beyond me...

I think this is a page out of the Israeli Ben Gurion airport book. I've heard that they use human interaction much more extensively than other western countries to intercept bad guys trying to get on a plane. They're trained to spot facial expressions, mannerisms, inconsitencies, etc. that correlate with people who may have more than a safe trip on their mind. I've heard/read where they will do things like ask to look at the photos you took "on vacation" and describe the people, what you ate at the restaurant, etc.

They do seem to be less protective of privacy and "civil rights" as we call them here, but on the other hand, not too many bad things have happened on planes leaving that airport.

I wouldn't do well if asked about Shakespear, I would hope they would ask me about Beatles!!
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Jane

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Re: Is flying just going to be too much of a hassle?
« Reply #26 on: January 22, 2010, 10:11:17 PM »

I didn`t know about such things, Alexis. Now I see why they do it.
I mentioned the case which I witnessed. It was my friend. So when she was asked about Shakespear, she immediately started reciting TO BE OR NOT TO BE THAT IS THE QUESTION... and she went on and on. It even was funny. But how could one laugh in such circumstances? I went after her and was spared the experience. But certainly one is not supposed to speak English if one goes to Britain. Why should he or she? It is not obligatory. By no means.
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Jane

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Re: Is flying just going to be too much of a hassle?
« Reply #27 on: January 22, 2010, 10:25:37 PM »

I have received the Schengen visa and I am going to Western Europe next week.
First to Belgium. Do you know any specific rules for Belgium customs? Any advice for my stay in Belgium, what would you recommend me to see there or where to go?
I am certain to travel to The Netherlands, to Amsterdam. Any recommendations concerning Amsterdam? I would appreciate it if Bobber could help me in this respect. Thank you in advance. And, yes, what is the weather like as a rule in late January- early February?  :)
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alexis

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Re: Is flying just going to be too much of a hassle?
« Reply #28 on: January 23, 2010, 03:27:50 AM »

I have received the Schengen visa and I am going to Western Europe next week.
First to Belgium. Do you know any specific rules for Belgium customs? Any advice for my stay in Belgium, what would you recommend me to see there or where to go?
I am certain to travel to The Netherlands, to Amsterdam. Any recommendations concerning Amsterdam? I would appreciate it if Bobber could help me in this respect. Thank you in advance. And, yes, what is the weather like as a rule in late January- early February?  :)


Hi Jane - When I was younger I visited Amsterdam, but I would not recommend you go to the parts of the city I did, because ...



Good Girls Don't by THE KNACK
« Last Edit: January 23, 2010, 03:32:13 AM by alexis »
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Kevin

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Re: Is flying just going to be too much of a hassle?
« Reply #29 on: January 23, 2010, 10:34:38 AM »

Hi Jane. Amsterdam is nice. Get a hotel away from the centre on a nice Rent a bike. Visit the red light area in daytime/evening for a laugh (it's seedy at night), have the best chips you'll ever have on The Dam. Book an excursion ticket and use the canal boats to visit all the musuems - especially The Van Gogh. Visit Anne Franks house. It's a great city just for walking and getting lost. It'll be wet and cold.
Brugge is the place to go in Belgium - again canals etc. No offence to Belgians, but in Britain Belgium is seen as a place that Britain made to fight its wars with Germany in, and is now seen as a convenient place for a pee on the way to Holland.
Belgian customs don't really exist (the border is a flag.)
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Jane

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Re: Is flying just going to be too much of a hassle?
« Reply #30 on: January 23, 2010, 07:45:02 PM »

Hi Jane - When I was younger I visited Amsterdam, but I would not recommend you go to the parts of the city I did, because ...

I see Alexis what you mean, the parts are scary, though I thought that I would try something   ::)  , you know, when in Amsterdam... but now I realize that good girls don`t, if only with a good guy around...
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Jane

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Re: Is flying just going to be too much of a hassle?
« Reply #31 on: January 23, 2010, 08:09:28 PM »

Hi Jane. Amsterdam is nice. Get a hotel away from the centre on a nice Rent a bike. Visit the red light area in daytime/evening for a laugh (it's seedy at night), have the best chips you'll ever have on The Dam. Book an excursion ticket and use the canal boats to visit all the musuems - especially The Van Gogh. Visit Anne Franks house. It's a great city just for walking and getting lost. It'll be wet and cold.
Brugge is the place to go in Belgium - again canals etc. No offence to Belgians, but in Britain Belgium is seen as a place that Britain made to fight its wars with Germany in, and is now seen as a convenient place for a pee on the way to Holland.
Belgian customs don't really exist (the border is a flag.)

Thank you for advice, Kevin! I won`t visit the red light street at night, no way! (I am scared) I like the idea of going by boat in order to visit the museums, this is unusual.  :)
Hope the temperature won`t fall to -23C as it did last year, I remember our Dutch friends writing about it.
Brugge is the town I am going to stay in for the first 5 days, then Brussels for the next 5 days and the last 5 days - Amsterdam. Actually in Belgium I am going to attend a European law seminar on the Lisbon Treaty and European Union Law. So the trip won`t be all fun. It is quite serious and for my career too. The fun will start in Holland...  8)
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Joost

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Re: Is flying just going to be too much of a hassle?
« Reply #32 on: January 23, 2010, 09:52:46 PM »

Hope the temperature won`t fall to -23C as it did last year

-23C? I don't think it's ever been that cold here in my lifetime... This time of year it's usually between 0 and 5 degrees.
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Jane

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Re: Is flying just going to be too much of a hassle?
« Reply #33 on: January 24, 2010, 08:13:00 PM »

-23C? I don't think it's ever been that cold here in my lifetime... This time of year it's usually between 0 and 5 degrees.

Then I must have mixed it all up. I wonder who wrote about it last winter? I definitely remember it was somebody from those parts... But it`s good I am wrong because I prefer warmer weather when I stay in the Netherlands. Thanks Joost! A souvenir from me to you!  :)
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