Game Theory - perfect when both sides are rationale. When that's not the case though ... gee, I wonder if scientists have developed a behavioral model for that? Can it even be done? I know, maybe it can, by combining Game Theory prinicples with Chaos Theory? "The Fractal Analysis of the Al Qaeda Problem ("Eyes Only!)
I think we are all too easily convinced that our enemies are innocent populations led by irrational nutters. But that's only from our point of view.
Most of these countries, North Korea, Iran, Iraq (before), Serbia (before), Lybia, Cuba etc have all been portrayed as such.
Yet all these nations, like The Taleban now who (as they did against the Soviets) face an enemy with an economic and military power vastly superior to their own. And most have played very clever games of brinkmanship with the US, who has only been able to remove them by actually invading. They play the game most advantageous to them. (of course, sometimes they make mistakes (as do we). Game Theory doesn't mean everyone always wins.)
I don't believe any of these nations or organisations are run by (or all the important decisions are made by) irrational people, and it is dangerous to dismiss them as so. They are heads of regimes, part of huge military complexes.
Nth Korea is portrayed as a nutter state. Yet it is a poor country faced by the US, South Korea and Japan. It maintains a huge miliary machine, has developed nuclear weapons (we have them , does that make us nutters?) , with many people in the regime with huge vested interests in it's survival and frequently forces the issue with daring bits of diplomatic brinkmanship while avoiding actual conflict (which it knows it would ultimately loose.)
I think to always dismiss your enemy as irrational because he acts in a manner or of a motive alien to you is wrong, and dangerous. If game Theory is true (and it seems to be) you are automatically at a disadvantage. He is more likely to calculate your next move (because he believes you will act rationally) than you will his (because you believe him to be acting irrationally, therefore unpredictably.)
An oppenent will always tend to do the thing they see as the most advantageous to themselves. The trick is to figure out what that is.