Wow, great post. I don't know much about Potemkin/Odessa, but I take your good points all around.
I'm not so sure we want the Iranian government to fall right now. Mousavi's power base isn't really into major societal changes (Rasfanjani is about as establishment as they come). Hopefully something with more potential for real change a little later, but not as catastrophic as the doomsday worst case scenario you allude to, adamzero.
Mousavi the protester is far from Mousavi the candidate. When the protests started, he changed.
but besides which, if this succeeds, which it looks like it will and assuming that Mousavi, Rasfanjani and Mozerati arent killed, Mousavi will become President, Rasfanjani will oust Khemeini and either replace him with Mozerati or disband the Supreme Ayatollah all together and set up a council of Ayatollahs.
Either way, Mousavi and Mozerati will work for a separation of Mosque and State. The country will become far more secular than it is, it may not lose the influence of the Ayatollahs in government completely, but they will have far less power than they did prior to this.
Theres no reason why we should not want to see this succeed. If it does, we'll have a more western-friendly, secular democracy in the middle-east of all places. Iran being more friendly to the West will create a massive power vaccuum in the region because now groups like Hizbollah and Hamas will no longer have the support and funding they got from Iran and could easily lose power. There could very well be a string of uprisings within the region that could create a domino effect.
There really is no reason why we shouldnt root for the protesters.