John Kerry has just thrown his weight behind Barack Obama today, so that might make a difference.
My friend had an interesting take on the Iowa Republican caucuses, where Fundamentalist Mike Huckabee won receiving 34% of the electorate and Mitt Romney (Latter Day Saints) finished second with 25%. At first blush this looks terrible; America is well on its way towards establishing a theocracy under the American Taliban. But perhaps the real answer is more encouraging: more and more people who used to vote Republican have simply abandoned the party. They've finally realized that these extremists do _not_ represent their views, and plan to vote Democratic this term.
I've talked to many of these converts myself. For women, the Katrina disaster was a big motivator. For some, Bush's unauthorized spying on Americans (when methods legally available were not used) was a deciding factor. The Republicans successfully appealed to their most radical base for the last few elections. But most Republicans don't hold these radical views. They want health care and a decent education and, oh, jobs would be nice. I don't think they want a holy war with the Mideast-- can anyone who considers him/herself a moderate Republican comment on this?
I really don't know. I'm living in a country that elected Bush twice, thinks reality TV is entertaining, and wants to get rich so they can treat everyone else like crap, just like the rich people are doing today. Not a healthy place. But I really do think that the majority of my fellow Americans are finally waking up to the fact that the unholy alliance between government and corporate interests is designed to shut them out of that piece of the pie that they'd give _anything_ to get, so they'd better settle for some responsible government before they find themselves taking the bus to work in our crappy excuse for a mass-transit system and wondering what the hell happened to their discretionary income.